Global average temperatures eased slightly in 2025 due to the influence of the La Niña weather pattern, according to data from the European Copernicus climate service and the UK Met Office. However, this cooling effect is temporary, and scientists warn that the underlying warming trend remains firmly on track to break further heat records in the coming years.
The Pause Before the Surge
The temporary dip in global temperatures is largely attributable to La Niña, a natural phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that suppresses global heat. Despite this, 2025 still ranks among the warmest years ever recorded, exceeding temperatures from even a decade ago by a significant margin. The planet’s average temperature now exceeds 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels – a benchmark defined as temperatures before widespread fossil fuel combustion in the late 1800s.
The significance of this trend cannot be overstated. The world is rapidly approaching the internationally agreed-upon limit of 1.5°C warming, set in the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change. Current projections suggest this threshold will be breached by the end of the decade.
Why the Cooling Is Not a Relief
Natural climate variability, such as the oscillation between El Niño (warming) and La Niña (cooling) phases, causes short-term fluctuations. El Niño boosted temperatures in 2024 and 2023, while La Niña provided a slight respite in 2025. However, the persistence of high temperatures even during a La Niña year is cause for concern. As Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, noted, “it’s a little worrying.”
The Unexplained Surge
The past three years have seen global temperature records broken by substantial margins. Scientists have observed monthly records falling since 2023, and the rapid acceleration in warming has spurred speculation about contributing factors beyond greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño.
Some theories propose that changes in cloud patterns or a reduction in sunlight-reflecting aerosols may be exacerbating the warming trend. Prof. Rowan Sutton, director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, acknowledged that “there might be some mysteries that we haven’t fully solved.” The speed of warming is now at the upper end of long-term projections, but the full implications remain uncertain.
Future Outlook: Mitigation and Adaptation
Despite the uncertainties, scientists are clear that the future trajectory of climate change is not fixed. Prof. Sutton emphasized that “we can strongly affect what happens” through both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the inevitable changes already underway. While more records are expected to be broken in the future, aggressive mitigation and resilience-building measures can still shape the severity of the consequences.
The temporary cooling in 2025 is not a sign of reversal; instead, it underscores the urgency of addressing the underlying warming trend. Unless drastic action is taken, the planet will continue to approach – and eventually surpass – critical climate thresholds.
